2026 - the year of No Illusions

Every January, leaders are encouraged to set resolutions, be optimistic, and start the year with energy. That advice is comfortable. It is also dangerously inadequate for what lies ahead.

2026 will not be a gentle year. It will test judgement, stamina, and leadership maturity in ways many executives have not previously experienced. If you are still hoping for stability, clarity, or a return to familiar patterns, you are already exposed.

This is the year to abandon wishful thinking and focus on reality.

The environment you are actually leading in

We are entering a period defined by sustained volatility rather than short term disruption.

Economic pressure is not easing. It is embedding. Costs remain high, margins are thin, and customers are more cautious and less loyal than at any point in recent memory.

Technology, particularly AI, is no longer a future issue. It is an operational one. The risk is not that AI will replace your people overnight. The real risk is that competitors who understand how to use it well will outlearn and outpace you while you debate policy, ethics, or tooling.

Trust in institutions, brands, and leadership continues to erode. Employees are sceptical. Customers are selective. Regulators are alert and increasingly interventionist.

This is not a cycle you wait out. It is a reality you lead through.

The real risks leaders underestimate

Most leadership teams I work with are not underestimating risk because they are naïve. They are underestimating risk because they are busy, successful, and surrounded by people who protect them from uncomfortable truths.

The most significant risks in 2026 will not come from the obvious places.

Complacency will be more dangerous than competition. If your organisation has performed reasonably well over the last two years, you may be mistaking resilience for readiness.

Skill lag will quietly undermine performance. Many senior leaders are making decisions about technology, data, and organisational design without genuinely understanding the implications. Delegation is sensible. Abdication is not.

Cultural fragility is widespread. Under pressure, behaviours revert. If your culture only works when conditions are favourable, it is not a strength. It is a liability.

Decision paralysis is increasing. Faced with complexity, many leaders delay, over consult, or hide behind process. In 2026, slow decisions will be wrong decisions.

The opportunities most organisations miss

Hard years are not only periods of risk. They are periods of asymmetric opportunity.

When conditions are tough, average competitors become cautious. They cut investment, avoid change, and focus on protecting what they have. That creates space.

Organisations that invest selectively in capability, particularly leadership capability, gain disproportionate advantage.

There is opportunity in simplifying bloated operating models, in removing work that no longer adds value, and in resetting expectations around performance and accountability.

There is opportunity in using AI properly, not as a gimmick or a cost cutting exercise, but as a tool to improve decision quality, speed, and insight.

There is opportunity in clarity. Leaders who can explain where the organisation is going, why it matters, and what will change earn trust in an environment where trust is scarce.

Do you need to pivot, or do you need to commit?

Pivoting has become fashionable. It is often misunderstood.

A pivot is not a sign of intelligence if it is driven by anxiety. Equally, persistence is not a virtue if it is driven by ego.

The questions that matter going into 2026 are uncompromising.

Is your strategy still valid given how your customers are behaving now, not how you hope they will behave?

Are your leaders equipped for the organisation you need next, or only the one you built before?

Do you have the courage to stop doing things that once worked but now merely consume energy?

Are you personally spending your time on the decisions that only you can make, or are you hiding in operational detail?

These are not questions for a board offsite or a glossy strategy deck. They are questions for serious reflection and disciplined action.

Why mentoring matters more than ever

In periods like this, experience matters. Pattern recognition matters. Judgment matters.

This is why mentoring is not a luxury for leaders in 2026. It is a strategic asset.

Most executives do not need more frameworks. They need someone who has seen hard years before, who understands the trade offs, and who will challenge their thinking without flattery.

They need a space where they can test decisions before consequences are irreversible, where blind spots are exposed early, and where confidence is built on realism rather than reassurance.

That is the role I play.

I do not offer comfort. I offer clarity. I do not dilute hard truths. I help leaders act on them.

If you are serious about leading well through 2026, not just surviving it, then this is the year to surround yourself with experience, not noise.

If you would like to discuss what this year realistically means for you, your leadership, or your organisation, I would welcome the conversation.