Leading in uncertainty is the new normal, but this weekend changed the game again

The escalating situation in the Middle East has sharpened an already unstable world. For business leaders, that means one thing, risk is rising. And with that rise come both threat and opportunity.

You may not be able to control geopolitics, but you can control how your business responds. Now is the time to pause, to reflect, to plan.

Sit down with your team. Think it through.

What are the possible implications?
Where are you vulnerable?
Where could you move quickly?
What scenarios could unfold?

Even if you conclude that no action is needed right now, the very act of having the conversation strengthens your organisation’s crisis muscle. And in uncertain times, that is a competitive advantage.

If you are not already doing this, here is a simple structure to follow:

• Gather your senior team and ensure you include diverse perspectives

• Map both risks and opportunities as too many teams focus only on the threats

• Run through scenarios and ask what you would do if A, B or C happened

• Decide what to monitor as geopolitics is fluid. What signals would trigger action?

• Communicate as your people are looking to you for clarity

We talk about resilience all the time. This is your opportunity to practise it.

If you are already having these conversations, what has worked well?
If you are not, what is stopping you?

What comes after the crisis conversation?

One-off meetings do not build resilience. It is consistency, clarity and communication that make the difference. So what should you do next?

Here is a simple structure that we use with senior teams:

1. Appoint a “watcher”
   Task someone with scanning for developments. Not just the obvious headlines, but second and third order effects such as supply chains, customer behaviour or political shifts

2. Create a 30-day dashboard
   Track what matters most. What are your critical assumptions? Where are you exposed? What decisions might you need to take quickly?

3. Set a rhythm
   Schedule short weekly check-ins. Not big strategy sessions, just focused conversations that ask “What has changed? What does it mean for us?”

4. Keep people in the loop
   Your wider organisation is watching too. They need to know you are thinking ahead. Even a simple message such as “We are monitoring but not acting yet” builds confidence and calm

Too many leadership teams have a good conversation and then go back to business as usual. The best teams build a habit of strategic thinking under pressure.