Only you can do this: leadership judgement when the world gets harder

In my recent blogs I have been clear about one thing.
2026 is not shaping up to be a tough year that we grit our teeth and push through. It is shaping up to be a destabilising one.

The early optimism I heard at the end of last year has already been overtaken by reality. Geopolitical uncertainty, economic fragility, technology moving faster than governance, and a workforce that is tired rather than energised. None of this feels temporary. It feels structural.

When the world gets more difficult, the stakes rise. And when the stakes rise, leadership becomes less about activity and more about judgement.

Harder environments demand better thinking

Most leadership failures in volatile periods are not failures of effort or intent. They are failures of thinking under pressure.

Stress compresses perspective. Urgency rewards action, not reflection. Ambiguity creates a false comfort in certainty. Leaders feel compelled to move quickly, to signal confidence, to be seen to act.

But difficult environments punish shallow thinking. They expose assumptions, amplify second order consequences, and leave little room for recovery when judgement is flawed.

You cannot lead 2026 with the thinking habits that worked when the world was more predictable. Complexity does not require louder leadership. It requires deeper leadership.

The myth of the well supported executive

From the outside, senior leaders appear well supported. They have boards, executive teams, advisers, consultants, data, dashboards.

From the inside, the experience is very different.

Boards have governance responsibilities. They test assurance more than they explore uncertainty.
Executive teams have political realities. Information is filtered, softened, or framed.
Advisers work to defined scopes. They solve the problem you commission, not the one that is bothering you at three in the morning.

The harder the environment becomes, the less truth travels upwards. People protect themselves. They protect momentum. They protect you from discomfort.

As the stakes rise, honesty often falls.

Only you can do this

There is a point in every serious leadership decision where delegation stops.

Only you integrate the commercial risk, the people impact, the cultural signal, the reputational exposure, and the long term consequences.
Only you carry accountability when trade offs are real and none of the options are clean.
Only you live with the decision after the meeting ends and the advisers have gone home.

You can delegate analysis.
You cannot delegate judgement.

That is the burden of leadership, and in years like 2026, it becomes heavier, not lighter.

Why traditional support breaks down in hard years

In stable periods, leadership systems cope reasonably well. Planning cycles work. Data trends are reliable. Mistakes can be corrected.

In unstable periods, those same systems struggle.

The real issues are not fully formed. The risks are human and reputational as much as financial. The consequences are asymmetric, one wrong call can do disproportionate damage.

Frameworks help, but they do not think for you.
Consensus feels comforting, but it is often fragile.
Speed looks decisive, but it can be reckless.

In difficult years, leaders do not need more inputs. They need better thinking space.

What a true executive sounding board provides

This is where the idea of an Executive Leadership sounding board matters.

Not a coach following a model.
Not a consultant selling answers.
Not a peer group sharing war stories.

A sounding board exists for one purpose. To help a leader think clearly, honestly, and rigorously about the decisions only they can make.

It is a place with no internal politics, no performance theatre, no need to appear confident.
A place where assumptions are challenged early, before they are exposed publicly.
A place where experience shortens the distance between complexity and clarity.

Good judgement is rarely born in isolation, but it is refined in the right conversation.

Where the stakes are highest right now

I see the same pressure points repeatedly in 2026 conversations.

Strategic risk decisions in an unstable geopolitical and economic climate.
Talent calls where performance, trust, fatigue, and values collide.
Technology choices, particularly around AI, where timing matters as much as accuracy.
And the personal sustainability of leaders operating under prolonged uncertainty.

In stable years, poor judgement is often absorbed.
In unstable years, it compounds.

Experience as a form of risk reduction

When data is incomplete and the future is unclear, pattern recognition matters.

Having lived through multiple cycles changes how you assess risk, pace, and consequence. It changes what you worry about, and what you do not.

Experience does not remove uncertainty. It does reduce naivety.

In difficult years, calm, pragmatic challenge becomes a stabilising force. Not nostalgia. Not theory. Judgement earned under pressure.

Leadership is a thinking discipline

2026 will not reward optimism for its own sake.
It will reward leaders who can think clearly while others rush, posture, or freeze.

Only you can make the call. That responsibility cannot be outsourced.

But thinking well does not require thinking alone.

The world is getting harder. The stakes are higher. Only you can do this.
You just do not have to do it without a proper sounding board.

Pat Chapman-Pincher