Over the last few months I have had a number of conversations that I did not expect to be having.  Not with people who are inexperienced.  Not with people whose skills have become obsolete.  Not with people approaching retirement. 

These are people I know well. People with strong track records. People who have delivered results. People who have led teams, managed crises, grown businesses and consistently demonstrated good judgement.  If I had a suitable role available tomorrow, I would hire many of them in a heartbeat. 

Yet they are struggling.   They are getting onto longlists but not shortlists. They are having initial conversations but not securing final interviews. They are receiving polite rejections without ever quite understanding why.   So what is going on? 

I started looking at the evidence because my first assumption was that this was simply a reflection of a weak economy. There is certainly some truth in that. UK vacancies have been falling while unemployment has been rising, meaning there are now significantly more people competing for each available role. The UK labour market is noticeably less tight than it was two years ago. (Office for National Statistics) 

But that explanation feels incomplete.   Many of the people I am speaking to would normally stand out in any candidate pool. 

The first hypothesis is that organisations have become more cautious.  Recent CIPD data shows employers are prioritising cost management over growth. Recruitment firms are reporting declining permanent hiring and increasing use of temporary staff as organisations seek flexibility in uncertain economic conditions. (CIPD) 

In simple terms, organisations are hiring less and taking fewer risks. When companies are nervous they often stop hiring for potential and start hiring for exact fit. The shortlist becomes narrower. The specification becomes more rigid. Good candidates who would previously have been considered are screened out because they are not a perfect match. 

The second hypothesis is more interesting.  Many organisations are redesigning jobs before they fully understand what those jobs will become.  AI is not eliminating most professional roles outright, at least not yet. However, there is growing evidence that employers are slowing hiring in roles they believe may be significantly changed by AI. Researchers at King's College London found measurable changes in hiring patterns following the arrival of generative AI, particularly in occupations more exposed to automation. (King's College London) 

I increasingly wonder whether some organisations are delaying recruitment decisions because they are uncertain about what capability they will actually need in twelve months' time. 

The third hypothesis concerns how recruitment itself has changed.  Technology has made applying for jobs dramatically easier. According to recent research, the average job now attracts many more applications than it did only a few years ago. Recruiters are drowning in CVs and increasingly relying on automated filtering systems and rigid selection criteria. (Business Insider) 

The result is paradoxical.  The system is more efficient.  But it may also be less effective. Outstanding candidates can disappear into a sea of applications because modern recruitment processes are optimised for screening volume rather than recognising potential. 

The fourth hypothesis may be uncomfortable. The market increasingly rewards signals of adaptability rather than experience alone. Recent research suggests that AI skills are becoming a particularly strong hiring signal, even offsetting disadvantages associated with age or traditional qualifications. (arXiv) 

This does not mean decades of experience have suddenly become irrelevant. Far from it. What it may mean is that employers are asking a different question. Not "Have you done this before?" but "Can you succeed in a world that looks different from the one in which you gained your experience?" 

Those are not the same thing. Which brings me back to the people I know. 

I do not believe there has suddenly been a collapse in capability amongst experienced professionals. In many cases quite the opposite. The people I speak to have accumulated wisdom, judgement and practical leadership skills that organisations desperately need. 

The problem may be that we are living through one of those periods when the labour market is changing faster than organisations understand.  Companies are uncertain. Candidates are uncertain. Recruiters are uncertain. And uncertainty creates friction. 

Perhaps the most important lesson is this. If you are struggling to find a role, do not automatically assume it is a reflection of your value. The evidence suggests something more complex is happening. 

We are witnessing a labour market that is trying to work out what skills, experiences and capabilities will matter most in an AI enabled economy. That would be challenging enough if everyone agreed on the answer. The reality is that nobody does.