Did you have a plan for 2026? Someone just tore it up

At the end of 2025, many of the leaders I spoke to shared a similar view.

It had not been a great year, but there was a sense that 2026 might be better. Maybe the war in Ukraine would move towards peace. Maybe tariffs would settle. Maybe markets would calm down. Maybe, finally, the system would start correcting itself again.

Eight days into the new year, that optimism looks dangerously naive.

Political rhetoric has hardened, not softened. Trade friction is back in play. Markets are reacting to uncertainty, not fundamentals. AI capability continues to accelerate while governance, ethics and leadership confidence lag behind. Long standing assumptions about alliances, regulation and stability are being challenged in public.

If you had a neat plan for 2026, based on things returning to normal, it is time to accept that it has already been torn up.

The uncomfortable truth leaders need to face

The world system is no longer self correcting.

For decades, leaders could rely on buffers. Economic shocks would be absorbed. Political extremes would be moderated. Technology would disrupt, but gradually enough for organisations to adapt.

That era is over.

Risk is now systemic. Political decisions trigger economic consequences in days, not years. Technology introduces ethical and reputational exposure overnight. Social trust, once lost, does not quietly rebuild.

The most dangerous position for a leader in 2026 is quiet confidence that this will pass.

Ask yourself, honestly.

Which parts of your strategy assume stability?

Which risks have you downgraded because dealing with them would be inconvenient?

Which scenarios feel too uncomfortable to raise in the boardroom?

If your answer is “none”, you are almost certainly missing something.

This is the year for real risk conversations, not formal ones

Most organisations believe they are good at risk management.

What they are usually good at is documentation.

A real risk conversation is messy, challenging and often unsettling. It cannot be run as a compliance exercise, and it cannot be limited to the senior leadership team.

In fact, that is one of the biggest mistakes leaders make.

If you only involve the executive team, you will mostly hear reinforced assumptions, shared blind spots and carefully managed confidence.

The leaders who will get through 2026 well are doing something different.

They are deliberately bringing diversity into the room.

Bright young high potentials who are closer to emerging technologies and cultural shifts.

People from different backgrounds who see risks others normalise.

Operational leaders who understand where fragility really sits.

External voices who are not invested in defending the current plan.

This is not about hierarchy. It is about perspective.

How to structure a risk discussion that actually matters

Start by challenging assumptions, not listing threats.

What do we believe about the world that may no longer be true?

What has changed in the last six months that we are under reacting to?

Where are we relying on hope rather than evidence?

Then look at risk across a small number of lenses.

Strategic risk. Are our market, customer or investment assumptions still valid?

Operational risk. Where would a single failure cause disproportionate damage?

People risk. Do we have the leadership depth, skills and resilience we assume we do?

Technology and data risk. What are we adopting faster than we understand?

Reputation and trust. What could damage credibility quickly, and how exposed are we really?

For each risk, ask three questions and insist on straight answers.

How likely is this, really?

How bad would it be if it happened this year?

What are we actively doing about it right now?

If the third answer is vague, you do not have mitigation. You have optimism.

Leadership in 2026 will be judged differently

This is not a year where leaders will be rewarded for confidence alone.

They will be judged on judgement.

On whether they created space for dissent before events forced it.

On whether they listened to voices outside the usual circle.

On whether they were prepared to change course early, rather than defend a plan that no longer fits reality.

And there is one final question every senior leader should ask themselves.

Who is helping me see what I cannot see?

Because experience brings wisdom, but it also brings blind spots.

2026 will not forgive denial.

But it will reward leaders who face reality early, involve the right people, and take risk seriously before it becomes crisis.