Blog Post

Set me a Watchman

Jan 19, 2025

In an era where age and experience are often debated as leadership virtues, it is remarkable that some of the world’s most dominant figures are in their seventies. Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin not only epitomise the power of seasoned leadership but also highlight the complexities of influence at the highest levels. These septuagenarian leaders are shaping the global stage with unparalleled authority and determination.

Trump, now at a point where re-election is no longer a possibility, governs with the freedom that comes from having no personal political future at stake. Xi Jinping, on the other hand, has secured indefinite power, casting a long shadow over China's future. Vladimir Putin’s grip on Russia remains equally firm, with a vision extending far beyond the immediate horizon. These leaders are united by one key factor: the ability to act decisively without the constraints of worrying about their personal futures.

The Power of Vision—And the Lack of Accountability

Each of these leaders brings a unique vision to the table, reflecting their political systems and personal ideologies. Donald Trump’s America-first approach resonates with segments of the U.S. population, even as it polarises others. Xi Jinping’s focus on China's global ascendancy has been met with fervent nationalistic support, while Putin’s strategies aim to restore Russia’s influence on the world stage. Whether through democratic mandates, nationalist fervour, or tightly controlled political mechanisms, they lead with the backing of significant segments of their populations—or populations who have little say in the matter.

Critically, these leaders hold power over formidable military forces. With vast resources at their disposal and an arguably diminished sense of personal risk, they can make decisions that reverberate globally. Their actions, unencumbered by the usual checks and balances of leadership, create a volatile landscape for the rest of the world.

Ripple Effects for Businesses and Beyond

What does this concentration of power mean for the global economy, international relations, and businesses trying to navigate uncertain waters? The decisions made by these leaders influence everything from energy prices to trade policies, creating ripple effects felt in boardrooms and supply chains worldwide. For businesses, the stakes are high. Unpredictability in geopolitics often translates into disruptions in markets, strained supply lines, and shifts in consumer behaviour.

As leaders within our own spheres, the question is: how do we respond? Do we adopt a wait-and-see approach, hoping to weather the storm? Or do we proactively prepare for the unpredictable?

Leadership in the Age of Uncertainty

To thrive in an era marked by such uncertainty, leaders must cultivate strategic foresight and adaptability. Here are four steps to help navigate this complex landscape:

  1. Understand the Fear and Doubt Driving Behaviours on the Global Stage
    Global leaders often act out of fear—fear of losing influence, fear of internal dissent, or fear of external threats. By recognising these drivers, we can better anticipate their actions and the potential implications.

  2. Monitor the Outside World
    Stay informed about international developments. Geopolitical trends, policy shifts, and economic forecasts all provide valuable insights into what might come next. Businesses that can interpret these signals effectively will be better positioned to adapt.

  3. Engage with Customers and Suppliers
    In uncertain times, understanding the perspectives of those in your supply chain or customer base is crucial. Their challenges may reflect broader trends or risks that you need to address. Building strong relationships fosters resilience.

  4. Plan Strategically for Uncertainty
    Strategic planning in today’s world requires flexibility. Scenario planning, risk assessments, and contingency strategies should be integral to any leadership approach. This isn’t about predicting the future but about being ready for whatever comes next.

The Leadership Imperative

Being prepared means staying informed, agile, and forward-thinking. As global power dynamics shift under the influence of leaders with little to lose, businesses and organisations must rise to meet the challenges of unpredictability. By understanding the forces at play and proactively planning, we can not only weather the uncertainties but thrive amidst them.

How are you planning for the unpredictable?